Effective Risk Quantification for Major Transportation Projects (and the Fallacy of Reference Class Forecasting)

This course on project controls is brought to you by GBRI's partnership with Project Controls Expo. Click here to learn more
PCE-Virtual-logo
John Hollmann 
· Published on:July 24, 2021

This presentation explains the two major schools of research on the causes of major transportation project cost overruns and the risk quantification methods being recommended to address the problem. The planning fallacy (optimism bias) is one school, and fundamental failure of project systems (systemic risks) is the other. This paper concludes that systemic risk, including both bias and project system practices, is the primary cause and describes the empirical research behind that conclusion. The presentation explains how the method proposed to address the planning fallacy called reference class forecasting (RCF) will result in institutionalized mediocrity of both practices and cost outcomes. AACE International® Recommended Practices for quantifying systemic and other risks including bias will be reviewed that support capital project system improvement and more competitive cost and schedule outcomes.

John Hollmann 

Owner for Validation Estimating, LLC

    About Instructor

    Shafeeq

    41 Courses

    Not Enrolled

    Course Includes

    • 1 Lesson

    Responses

    Your email address will not be published.

    The journey to become a sustainability guru begins here!
    Jeslin Varghese
    gbri-logo

    Sustainability education should not have any boundaries!

    Register now to get started.

    By creating an account, I declare that I have read and accepted GBRI’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

    Please accept the Terms and Conditions to proceed.
    OR REGISTER WITH
    GBRI is your #1 source for sustainability education with more than 250 courses to choose from!
    gbri-logo

    Welcome back!

    Login to access your sustainability courses, certificates, badges, community and more!
    OR LOGIN WITH